Ukraine war latest: Russia claims to have control of town just 15km from key city (2024)

A Russian drone violated Romanian airspace during overnight attacks on Ukraine, according to officials.

The incident occurred as Russia carried out attacks on "civilian targets and port infrastructure" across the Danube River in Ukraine, Romania's ministry of national defence said.

Romania deployed F-16 jets in response and NATO allies have been informed, it added.

Romanian emergency authorities also issued text alerts to residents of two eastern regions.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Romania has confirmed drone fragments on its territory on several occasions, most recently in July this year.

To great surprise among allies and enemies alike, Ukraine has managed to successfully launch - and maintain - a land grab of Russian territory.

For more than month, Kyiv's troops have occupied a significant portion of the Kursk region - up to 1,300sqkm if Ukrainian estimates are to be believed.

While holding the land opens up the prospect of a territory swap later down the line, one of the shorter-term aims was to force Russia to redirect its considerable forces inside Ukraine a little closer to home.

But are Russian troops actually being pulled out of Ukraine and away from their previous objectives?

Ukraine's GUR military intelligence chief Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov said yesterday that the invasion had signalled theatre-wide impacts on Russian offensive operations.

He claimed Ukraine had successfully disrupted Russian plans for the rest of August, but admitted that Russian military command is still committing most available manpower to achieve their objectives in Russia's "main direction".

He was almost certainly referring to Pokrovsk.

The city has been under aerial bombardment and is slowly being advanced upon by Moscow's troops, with the nearby town ofNovohrodivka and village of Kalynove claimed by the ministry of defence in the last two days alone.

It's home to a major logistics hub used by Ukrainian forces, which services the eastern region of Donbas.

Analysts, including experts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), have noted Russia intensifying operations around the city come in spite of the Kursk invasion.

Interestingly, "ISW has not observed intensified Russian offensive operations in other frontline areas in Ukraine" - suggesting that the Kursk operation has had at least some impact in forcing Moscow to redirect its forces.

However, Moscow'smilitary command has "almost certainly decided to prioritise Russian advances near Pokrovsk" and is "committing available manpower and materiel to the area at the expense of Russian offensive operations in other directions".

Can Russia capture Pokrovsk and defend Kursk at the same time?

Russian military bloggers don't seem to think so.

Voenkor Kotenok claimed manpower constraints meant it was unlikely that Russia could claim Pokrovsk and kick Ukraine's forces out of their defensive positions and back across the border.

He also claimed Russian forces are continuing offensive operations around Pokrovsk despite being "exhausted" and "exsanguinated".

ISW suggested that Russian forces will likely eventually take the city, but there is a possibility that troops will completely tire before then.

Watch:Russian forces fight in Kursk region

Will winter impact fighting?

Winter is not far away now and conditions along the front will be massively impacted.

Lie Gen Budanov said yesterday it would complicate Russian operations, but did not think that it would stop them completely, comments echoed by the ISW.

"The fall mud season has historically hampered Russian and Ukrainian ground manoeuvre, but periods of prolonged freezing temperatures that typically begin in late December freeze the ground and allow armoured vehicles to move more easily than in autumn and spring months," ISW said.

"Fall and winter weather conditions will likely complicate Russian and Ukrainian battlefield activity, but are very unlikely to completely stall activity along the frontline."

Russia is waging a "reckless campaign of sabotage" across Europe, the heads of MI6 and the CIA warned.

Sir Richard Moore and Bill Burns also said the UK and the US faced an "unprecedented array of threats".

Watch our security and defence editor Deborah Haynes' report on their comments here...

With the US election looming, we ask experts what they think a second Trump presidency would look like for Europe and the war in Ukraine.

Former British ambassador to the US, Lord Darroch, was asked by Sky's Trevor Phillipsabout previous comments, in which he described the previous Trump administration as "inept and insecure".

Lord Darroch replied, saying he worries "more about a Trump second term than his first term".

The former US president will be "better prepared" and have a "greater understanding of how to get his agenda through", he added.

Donald Trump's ideas on Ukraine, comments on NATO and threat of imposing tariffs on the rest of the world are "all very dangerous stuff", Lord Darroch said.

However, he noted Mr Trump "isn't a great policy person" so it is also "a bit of an unknown quantity".

Volodymyr Zelenskyy's government reshuffle continues - appointing a new adviser.

Oleksandr Kamyshin, formerly minister for strategic industries, will now serve as an external adviser for strategic issues, a decree published on the presidential website said.

Mr Kamyshin resigned his former ministerial position last week as part of a Ukrainian government shake-up, which takes place at a critical juncture in the war with Russia.

Russia invaded Ukraine more than 30 months ago. In that time, both Russia and Ukraine have made considerable advances - only to lose territory again in vicious fighting.

Today, Kapesa asks:

Who is winning between Russia and Ukraine?

Military analystSean Bellsays...

When Russia initiated its brutal invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin appeared to expect Ukraine to capitulate within days.

However, stoical Ukrainian resistance combined with growing Western military support forced Russia to modify its war aims.

Over 900 days into the war, it is very difficult to use terms like "winning" given the price that both sides are paying in this grinding war of attrition.

However, we can provide an objective assessment of progress to date.

Although we can only speculate about Mr Putin's specific objectives for the war, he has consistently suggested that the aim of his "special military operation" is securing Crimea, the Donbas, and the Land Bridge linking the two areas.

Russian forces have secured the majority of this territory over the course of the war, and have advanced further into Ukraine territory this month than in any month since October 2022.

While Ukraine has conducted an audacious incursion into Russian territory - the first time Russia has suffered occupation since 1941 - and has also increased the intensity of drone and missile attacks deep into Russia, such attacks look unlikely to divert Russian forces from their main effort in the Donbas region.

For now, Russian forces are making grinding progress towards securing the remaining areas of the Donbas not yet occupied, and it looks likely that this will remain Russia's priority for the remaining weeks before winter arrives and fighting becomes more difficult.

If Russia achieves Putin's military objectives this year, their military capability will need to be regenerated before they are able to conduct further large scale military operations.

Therefore, we should expect Mr Putin might then declare he has achieved his military ambitions - for now - and be prepared to negotiate an end to the war.

However, whether President Volodymyr Zelenskyy might be prepared to accept Russia's terms in those circumstances, only he can know.

Have questions about the war? Submit them for our correspondents and military analysts to answer by using the comments form at the top of this page.

Russian forces have taken control of the town of Novohrodivka in Donetsk region, state media reports, citing the defence ministry.

This comes amid increasing military pressure in the area - with Russian forces setting their sights on Pokrovsk, which lies some 15km northwest of Novohrodivka as the crow flies.

The city of Pokrovsk, which has been under aerial bombardment and is slowly being advanced upon from several sides by Moscow's troops, is home to a majorlogistics hub used by Ukrainian forces, which services the eastern region of Donbas.

Russian forces have for months sought to capture the town, but their advance appears to have picked up speed in recent weeks.

"Pokrovsk is a very important hub, a centre of defence. If we lose Pokrovsk, the entire front line will crumble," military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov told the BBC last month.

Russian forces also claimed to have captured the nearby village of Kalynove yesterday.

Ukraine has not commented on Russian claims.

Ukraine is successfully adapting and developing cheaper anti-drone capabilities, according to analysts and a leading thinktank.

Drones have become a key feature of the war, with thousands traded across the Russian-Ukraine border in recent months, but Kyiv has been forced to adapt to combat them, due to equipment shortages and the high cost of air defence.

Ukraine uses a variety of air defence systems, including US-supplied Patriots.

They're very effective, but each Patriot battery costs around $1bn, and each missile costs almost $4m.

The cost of firing a missile from a Soviet-era S-300 costs $140,000, while using American NASAMS would be $500,000.

That's hugely expensive, especially when considering it could be used to shoot down a Shahed drone worth $16,000.

Russia sent more than 60 drones to attack Ukraine on Friday night alone.

How is Ukraine adapting?

Ukrainian military analyst Petro Chernyk said yesterday that Kyiv's electronic warfare (EW) systems are now successfully disrupting Iranian-made Shahed drones sent by Russia - causing them to change course and crash after running out of fuel.

The Ukrainian air force has also acknowledged the use of EW in its air defence in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian drone production company Besomar said yesterday that it had developed an "interceptor drone" that could shoot down Russian drones - and that it was already being used on the battlefield.

Additionally, the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has noted reports of Ukrainian forces using first-person view drones to down Russian helicopters and drones.

Watch:Drone 'burns Russian positions'

"These Ukrainian countermeasures are part of wider efforts aimed at offsetting the pressure that repeated, large-scale Russian strike series exert on Ukraine's limited air defence umbrella in the face of delayed and inconsistent deliveries of Western security assistance," ISW assessed.

This in turn means that Ukraine can save those expensive air defence missiles to defend not just the frontline areas, but also critical infrastructure and major population centres.

The ISW also said that Russia and Ukraine are in "a technological offence-defence race", noting that "Ukraine's ability to field technological innovations at scale ahead of Russian adaptations is crucial for Ukraine's ability to offset Russia's current materiel advantages".

Pro-Ukraine supporters took to the streets of the Czech capital of Prague yesterday calling for the protection of the skies over the Russian-invaded country.

The event also commemorated the victims of Tuesday's Russian strike in the Ukrainian city of Poltava, which killed more than 50 people.